My Oscar Predictions

What do Ebert, Roeper, and all the other critics have on me? Hey, nothing. By golly, I won the pool at Carolyn's Oscar Night Party last year. So, take that! Glad the writer's strike is over, because otherwise this show would've not taken place, and I do look forward to it, event though it's an eclectic bunch of movie folks and a gathering that Dorene went to once and swore she'd never do again (hey, we like our movies, what can I say).

Best Picture
"Juno" - This is who I want to win. By far the lightest of the nominees. I went into this with very low expecations and loved it. Great writing and a great cast all around, led by a super performance by Ellen Page. This movie will easiliy win Best Original Screenplay because the writing was a true standout.

"There Will be Blood" - A straightforward, yet very odd movie at times. Hard to describe. Strange soundtrack. Very long, but held my interest throughout. People seem to either like or strongly dislike this movie. I very much liked it. This movie will probably also pick up a lesser award like Cinematography or Art Direction.

"Atonement" - A much better movie than I was expecting. Figured it was just some sort of Jane Austen adaptation, but much more. A story of false accusations at some upper class mansion, then it switches gears and you have this well done sequence at Dunkirk. This movie should win Best Original Score, which was good, although "There Will be Blood" had the most unusual one I think I've ever heard (but it wasn't nominated).

"No Country for Old Men" - This is the movie that's favored to win. It is very good . . .but not all the way through. It's got an infuriating ending. Well, it doesn't end, it just stops, and quite abruptly. If someone tells you they like this movie, ask them about the ending. There's no way anyone can say they were happy with it.

"Michael Clayon" - Kind of a disappointment. I found this hard to follow at times and just wasn't always sure what was going on. I wanted to like it, but just didn't really connect with it. The movie thought it was good, but I didn't.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis should easily win. His was a true standout performance. I enjoyed Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah", which was a movie that absolutely no one saw. Viggo Mortensen had the scene of the year in "Eastern Promises." If you haven't seen this movie, you'll know it when it happens. George Clooney just won a couple years ago, so he has no chance. I didn't see Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Toddy" nor did I care to.

Best Actress
My pick is Ellen Page for "Juno." She truly made the movie. She's too young to win, so that's why the favorite is Julie Christine, who played an Alzheimer's patient in "Away from Her." This is one of those "Oscar" performances that I just didn't buy into and her role wasn't all that large. I haven't seen any of the other nominees in this category.

Best Supporting Actor
No way anyone but Javier Bardem wins for his performance in "No Country for Old Men." His was a truly classic villain. Great performance in a semi-great movie with the previously mentioned, seriously flawed ending. Casey Affleck was good in the very long, meandering, but still somewhat interesting, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford." Tom Wilkinson was the best part in the otherwise disappointing "Michael Clayton," the only other nominee in this category I saw.

Best Supporting Actress
Ruby Dee had a microscopic role in "American Gangster," yet she was still nominated and is kinda favored to win. That movie, by the way, was pretty good, although maybe a bit too long. Good performance by Russell Crowe who had that and "3:10 to Yuma" last year. My choice would be Amy Ryan in "Gone, Baby, Gone" a movie that starts out as a typical missing kid movie but is much, much more. I was very surprised by this one.

Best Original Song
"Enchanted" has three songs nominated, none of which are memorable. The song that will win is "Falling Slowly" from the movie "Once." I absolutely loved this movie and the song is truly memorable. Next to Juno, probably the best movie I saw last year. Both lead characters are wonderful.

Best Documentary
Michael Moore is nominated, but I'm not sure the Academy wants him on stage. So, I'd go with "No End in Sight," which was an excellent documentary on how we botched Iraq, as told by those that were in charge at the time. You will absolutely despise Paul Bremer after watching this. The sad thing is, this documentary shows how we actually could've made it work, but those chances are long gone now.

All Other Categories
As always, winning the Oscar pool usually depends on getting lucky with picking the winners in animated short, live action short, and the other obscure categories. I'm going with "I Met the Walrus" for animated short and "Tanghi Argentini" for live action short. Hey, something has to win!

"Transformers" will win any award for visual effects and probably sound too. I can't believe "The Simpsons Movie" wasn't nominated for animated feature film. That was the best one last year, but that leaves "Ratatouille" as this year's winner, which I thought was one of Pixar's lesser efforts.